VANCOUVER – The widespread impact of the credit crisis on mortgage finance, the economy, and consumer confidence has generated an external shock, sending B.C.’s housing market into recession, according to Central 1 Credit Union’s latest Economic Analysis of British Columbia newsletter.
“A poor economic outlook for 2009 and tight credit conditions extending into next year will keep housing sales on a downward trajectory for several more months,” said Central’s Chief Economist, Helmut Pastrick. “Housing sales will decline by a further 17 per cent in 2009, following a projected 30 per cent fall this year. An easing in the credit crisis, lower mortgage rates, and an improved economy will see housing sales turning upward in 2010.”
Housing prices will continue falling from their March 2008 high into next year, bringing the provincial median sales price down 13 per cent to $310,000 in 2009 and by a further five per cent in 2010. A turning point in the price downtrend is expected in 2010.
New construction is forecast to tumble 37 per cent in 2009 in a poor sales climate and tight credit environment. Housing starts will make a modest recovery in 2010, following a sales turnaround and relaxing credit conditions.
Market conditions in the near-term are weak, with a large supply-demand imbalance in the market quickly pushing prices lower. Unit sales levels are at multi-year lows, while listings on the market are at a multi-year high.
Adjustment out of the current oversupply situation depends mostly on less supply coming onto the market, since the sales environment is not conducive to a significant rebound.
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Sutton Group – West Coast Realty
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